Bitcoin Drops Below Cost Basis Faces $95K–$97K Resistance
Glassnode’s weekly report shows Bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holder cost basis and the -1 standard deviation band, indicating pressure on recent market entrants. Key resistance now stands at $95,000–$97,000, and a reclaim above this zone would mark an initial step toward a broader market structure recovery. Spot demand for Bitcoin remains weak, as US spot ETF fund flows stay negative and traditional finance allocators offer little buying support. On the derivatives side, open interest across top 500 futures has cooled and funding rates are at cyclical lows, signalling reduced leverage. The options market has repriced risk: implied volatility is rising across tenors while skew remains subdued, showing increased demand for downside protection. Combined factors create a mildly bearish tilt for Bitcoin, with a bounce in demand near crucial cost levels needed to defend structural support.
Bearish
Bitcoin’s slip below the short-term holder cost basis and negative spot demand signal weakened buying momentum. Historically, when Bitcoin fell under similar cost thresholds—such as during the mid-2022 pullback—it faced extended consolidation and downward pressure. The current negative ETF flows and low derivatives leverage reinforce a cautious market stance. Without reclaiming the $95K–$97K resistance zone, BTC could see further consolidation or deeper corrections in the short term.
In the derivatives market, cooling open interest and record low funding rates indicate reduced speculative leverage, often preceding more pronounced price swings. Rising implied volatility and subdued skew suggest traders are hedging against downside risk, reflecting a bearish sentiment. However, if demand picks up near key cost levels, Bitcoin may stabilize and slowly rebuild its market structure.
Overall, the combination of weak spot demand, cost-basis breaches, and cautious derivatives positioning point to a bearish outlook in the near term. Traders should watch for a rebound above the resistance zone to signal a potential shift toward recovery.