Bitcoin Slips as Iran Tensions Push Oil Above $100

Bitcoin initially fell 0.72% to about $78,524 as renewed US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices towards $100 a barrel. Strong US employment data, which showed 162,000 new jobs against forecasts of 53,000, also reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while markets priced in a 57%–59% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the September meeting. In the later move, Bitcoin briefly reached about $84,972 before dropping 1.8% in 24 hours to around $82,580–$83,000. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude then moved above $100, while the US dollar and Treasury yields rose, adding pressure to Bitcoin and other risk assets. Traders later priced a roughly 64% chance of another quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase in late October. Bitcoin’s technical structure remains relatively constructive. The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day average, forming a golden cross. RSI readings of 58.7–60.4 and ADX readings of 43.2–47.2 indicate positive momentum without overbought conditions. Bitcoin also remained above its key $73,986–$75,569 retracement zone. On Myriad, traders gave Bitcoin a 78.4% chance of reaching $84,000 before falling to $55,000, up from 77% a week earlier. Crypto market capitalisation later fell 1.7% to about $2.86 trillion. BNB declined nearly 2% and HYPE almost 4%, while ZEC and XRP remained higher over the week but fell on the day. Derivatives open interest reached $382.29 billion, and 24-hour derivatives volume rose 66.28% to $838.18 billion. More than $478 million in positions were liquidated, including $386.5 million in longs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record net inflows. Traders now await JOLTS data, the PCE inflation report and the latest jobs report. Bitcoin may remain volatile as markets assess oil prices, inflation, interest rates and labour-market strength.