Bitcoin Slumps in Uptober, Poised for November Rebound
Bitcoin slid from about $118,000 to $110,000 in October’s Uptober rally as retail activity waned and on-chain metrics weakened. Active addresses fell 26%, transaction fees plunged, and RSI dipped below neutral as price traded under key EMAs. Faded expectations for a December Fed rate cut, persistent China crypto restrictions and strong U.S. equities added pressure. However, historical data shows a median November return of 8.8% since 2013, while the end of quantitative tightening, a likely Fed rate cut and potential spot Bitcoin ETF approvals offer bullish catalysts. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics, open interest trends and macro signals to navigate short-term volatility and position for a possible November rally.
Bullish
While October’s Uptober slump reflects short-term bearish pressure from reduced retail participation, falling on-chain metrics and macro headwinds, seasonal trends and catalysts point higher. A historical median November gain of 8.8%, the end of quantitative tightening, rising odds of a Fed rate cut and pending spot Bitcoin ETF approvals support a bullish outlook. Traders should balance near-term volatility against these positive drivers when positioning for a potential November rally.