Bitcoin Price Prediction: SMA Cross Warns of Final Washout
Bitcoin price prediction signals growing caution as BTC shows a corrective rebound on lower time frames, while a Bitcoin 3-day SMA cross suggests a potential final selloff.
Short-term setup (1H chart): BTC is reacting around the $64,974 support. The bounce appears corrective, forming a three-wave structure (often seen as a temporary recovery rather than a new bullish impulse). Resistance is clustered at $68,300–$70,300 (near Fib 0.5/0.618/0.786). If BTC fails to hold above $64,974, the corrective rebound thesis weakens and a deeper decline becomes more likely. Upside resistance targets are cited near $71,759 and then ~$75,967.
Higher-time-frame warning (3-day chart): Ali Charts highlights that when the 50 SMA crosses the 200 SMA in prior bear-market bottoms, BTC typically still falls sharply again before a stronger bull cycle begins. Historical parallels referenced include 2014, 2018, and 2022, where the cross appeared before the “final washout” phase (i.e., the warning tends to precede capitulation rather than perfectly mark the exact bottom).
Bitcoin price prediction takeaway: traders should treat the current rebound as unconfirmed while watching the $64,974 line closely. A clean hold may allow another push toward resistance, but a breakdown would increase odds of one more volatility-driven reset before any stronger uptrend.
Bearish
The article’s core signal is bearish: a Bitcoin 3-day SMA cross has historically appeared before the final washout in prior bear markets, meaning the current price action may not be the end of downside. The short-term rebound is characterized as corrective (three-wave recovery) and faces heavy resistance at $68,300–$70,300; without strong breakout behavior, traders often get trapped into premature longs.
In similar past cycles referenced (2014, 2018, 2022), the SMA cross was followed by another steep decline before the next bull cycle began. That pattern supports expecting a possible “last capitulation” phase rather than immediate trend reversal.
For trading impact:
- Short-term: $64,974 is the key invalidation/decision level. Holding it could trigger another attempt toward $71,759/$75,967, but rejection at $68,300–$70,300 would keep downside risk elevated.
- Long-term: if the 3-day structure plays out like prior cycles, downside volatility may persist, delaying sustainable accumulation until the final washout completes.