Bitcoin Rally Hinges on Fed Data Tariff Easing & Bill Delays
Recent tariff delays with China and the EU and resumed trade talks have lifted risk appetite and pushed Bitcoin to fresh highs. U.S. inflation stands at 2.7%, with tariffs adding to core CPI. Markets now price no Fed rate cut before September, despite political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell. Traders will watch Powell’s speech and key U.S. data—initial jobless claims, and July manufacturing and services PMI—to gauge inflation and monetary policy. A dovish pivot could weaken the dollar and spark a Bitcoin rally, highlighting its hedge role. Conversely, strong jobless claims or PMI numbers may delay easing and weigh on prices. Meanwhile, stablecoin and digital asset bills in the U.S. House have been delayed, adding regulatory uncertainty. A 2011 Bitcoin whale moved 40,000 BTC this week, but muted exchange outflows and a 13,000 BTC reserve point to limited immediate sell pressure. Traders face rising volatility: a break above $115,000 could fuel gains, while unchecked exchange outflows risk triggering pullbacks.
Bullish
Combined news underscores both bullish catalysts and near-term headwinds for Bitcoin. Tariff easing and the prospect of a Fed dovish turn—driven by persistent 2.7% inflation and rising political pressure—could weaken the dollar and ignite a Bitcoin rally. Historical patterns show Bitcoin performing strongly during Fed accommodation. Moreover, muted exchange reserves and large whale movements with low net outflows suggest limited selling pressure. Conversely, delayed stablecoin and digital asset legislation and the risk of strong U.S. jobless claims or PMI readings may sustain volatility and cap immediate gains. Overall, supportive macro drivers and fundamental indicators point to a bullish outlook, although traders should navigate short-term swings.