Bitcoin short-term SOPR nears 1.0 — sell pressure may ease or signal further weakness
CryptoQuant reports Bitcoin’s short-term SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has climbed back toward the critical 1.0 threshold after a brief dip below 0.95. SOPR >1.0 indicates coins are being sold at a profit, while SOPR <1.0 signals realization of losses. CryptoQuant says a sustained SOPR above 1.0 for several days could reduce selling pressure from short-term holders and enable a technical rally. Conversely, repeated drops under 1.0 would imply persistent weakness or further price declines. The recent pullback did not mirror the panic-selling seen on Aug 5, 2024 (when SOPR fell to ~0.9), suggesting the current reaction is more muted though underlying vulnerabilities remain. CryptoQuant’s base case: reclaiming and preserving 1.0 could spark a short-term recovery, but a true market bottom may require deeper flushes to remove residual weakness. Traders should watch consecutive-day SOPR persistence around 1.0 as a near-term market signal.
Neutral
The report presents a conditional signal rather than a definitive directional trigger. Short-term SOPR approaching 1.0 is an important on-chain metric: sustained readings above 1.0 typically reduce immediate selling pressure and can support short-term rallies, which is bullish for near-term trading. However, CryptoQuant cautions that reverting below 1.0 repeatedly or probing lower levels may indicate unresolved weakness and lead to further declines. The current pullback was milder than the panic event on Aug 5, 2024 (SOPR ~0.9), so the market shows resilience but still carries fragility. For traders this means: in the short term, monitor SOPR persistence above 1.0 and volume/price confirmation for a potential rebound; set tight risk controls because failure to hold 1.0 increases downside risk. Over the long term, a sustained recovery requires on-chain indicators to show durable improvement and possibly a capitulation event to clear weak hands — until then, market structure remains ambiguous. Similar past patterns (brief SOPR recoveries followed by renewed declines) have produced false rallies; conversely, extended SOPR>1.0 stretches have preceded substantive recoveries. Thus the overall impact is neutral—potentially bullish if confirmed, but not yet decisive.