Bitcoin Spot Market Tightens Hints at Recovery Rally

Published: 2025-09-02 18:56:19 |

The Bitcoin spot market is showing signs of strengthening as buyers cluster supply around recent price levels. According to Glassnode’s on-chain data, cost basis distribution for BTC has become denser than ETH, indicating stronger accumulation. Long-term holder spending has risen modestly but remains within normal cycle levels, suggesting measured profit-taking. Exchange flows reinforce this bullish narrative. Coinbase saw net inflow spikes in late August after 30-day averages hit multi-year lows, while Binance netflow reached its highest since July 2024. The opposing flows point to meaningful liquidity redistribution that could fuel a recovery rally. Technically, Bitcoin spot market price rebounded sharply from $107,300 to break above $109,900. Short-term charts show bullish structure breaks and the 4-hour RSI climbed above 50. Critical resistance lies between $112,500 and $113,650. A daily close above $113,650 would confirm a breakout and target $116,300, $117,500, and $119,500. Failing this, downside risks extend toward $105,000–$100,000.

Bullish

On-chain data and exchange flows both point to a shift in spot demand that historically precedes upward price moves. Dense clustering in Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution and subdued yet measured long-term holder spending mirror past accumulation phases before major recoveries. Simultaneously, net inflow spikes at Coinbase from multi-year lows alongside record Binance netflows suggest liquidity redistribution favorable to buyers. Technically, the break above $109,900 and RSI above 50 on higher timeframes signal building momentum. If Bitcoin closes above the critical $113,650 level, it would invalidate the recent descending trendline and likely trigger targets at $116,300 to $119,500. In the short term, traders may push positions based on these breakout signals, while in the longer run, sustained spot demand could underpin a more durable rally. Failure to clear resistance, however, would shift attention back to the $105,000–$100,000 zone.