Bitcoin stalls below $75K after Fed holds rates
Bitcoin (BTC) extended a two-day drop after the Fed confirmed it would hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%. In the FOMC minutes, policymakers pointed to “uncertainty” tied to Middle East developments, while keeping the longer-run inflation goal at 2%.
Markets expected the decision, but BTC remained fragile during and after Chair Powell’s presser, sliding to an intraday low around $74,937 and briefly breaking key near-term support linked to the 20-day simple moving average near $75,664. Traders were watching for BTC to flip support into resistance; failure to reclaim the 20-MA and close above the trendline resistance could open the door for a test of the downside boundary of the roughly four-month channel.
On order-flow and positioning, Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma said the move looked like a typical “sell the news” reaction: BTC quickly recovered toward pre-announcement levels, while the global bid-ask ratio spiked and open interest fell—signs consistent with post-FOMC position squaring and stop-hunt behavior rather than broad conviction selling.
Glassnode also flagged increased bearish leverage ahead of the minutes, with price action “trapped below market mean” and weaker demand limiting sustainable rallies. Still, Glassnode highlighted institutional support: inflows into spot BTC ETFs and rising CME open interest helped form a dense accumulation cluster between $65K and $70K.
Key takeaway for traders: BTC is reacting to macro uncertainty (Fed hold + geopolitical risk) with short-term downside pressure, but ETF-related accumulation and reported positioning dynamics suggest dips may find support near $65K–$70K.
Neutral
This is best read as neutral for trading because the headline driver is macro uncertainty, but the microstructure read is mixed.
Short-term: The Fed hold (3.5%–3.75%) was largely expected, yet BTC sold off to just under the 20-day MA area (~$75.7K). That’s a classic setup for “sell the news” volatility and stops around nearby technical levels. The article also points to failure to reclaim the 20-MA/trendline as a risk to the lower bound of the multi-month channel.
However, the reported order-flow behavior tempers the bearish case: Hyblock observed a bid-ask ratio spike alongside falling open interest, plus a fast rebound toward pre-announcement prices—signals often seen in position squaring rather than sustained conviction selling.
Medium/longer term: Glassnode’s emphasis on spot BTC ETF inflows and a dense accumulation cluster at $65K–$70K is a structural support narrative. In past “Fed hold + risk-off headlines” episodes, BTC often wobbles around key moving averages initially, but ETF demand and accumulation bands can stabilize pullbacks, turning some dips into buyable liquidity events.
Net: expect choppy ranges and sensitivity to Fed/macro headlines, but with defined downside interest near $65K–$70K rather than a clear one-way bearish trend.