Bitcoin steadies at $65K as Iran fears ease

Fidelity macro director Jurrien Timmer says markets may be “pricing in” a near-term resolution to geopolitical tensions tied to Iran. He points to oil backwardation—WTI above $100 but the futures curve still backwardated—as evidence supply disruption looks temporary. Credit spreads remain contained and the S&P 500’s drawdown has narrowed from ~9% to around 1%, helped by resilient corporate earnings. Timmer also notes unusual correlation between gold and bonds, which he attributes to global capital flows. Crypto impact: Bitcoin may be forming a base near $65,000, with that level acting as solid support. Timmer argues much of the “paper hands” selling pressure has been absorbed after Bitcoin’s 50–60% decline from its peak. He remains bullish, but says a catalyst is still needed for the next upside leg. Catalyst backdrop: A US–Iran two-week ceasefire announcement reportedly pushed oil down more than 17% and lifted equities, with WTI bouncing back to about $100. Risks traders should monitor include energy-infrastructure escalation near the Strait of Hormuz (about 20% of global oil supply passes there) and rising Treasury yields (10-year approaching ~4.5%, risk toward 5%), which could pressure high-multiple equities. Overall, Timmer frames volatility as an opportunity for disciplined investors, not a reason to stay sidelined.