Bitcoin STH Capitulation Triggers 2.6K BTC Losses as LTHs Hold
Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are capitulating as the STH MVRV ratio dropped below 1 for the first time in 132 days, indicating recent buyers are holding underwater positions. In the past two weeks, short-term holders realized losses surged from 623 BTC to approximately 2.6 K BTC, reflecting intensified selling pressure. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) remain steadfast, with LTH sell-side risk falling to around 0.0017, suggesting strong conviction. On-chain metrics show the seller exhaustion constant bottomed in August before starting to rise, signaling that sell-side activity may be waning.
This capitulation phase often clears weak hands and can precede market bottoms. If seller exhaustion continues and demand returns, Bitcoin could stabilise near $112,000, offering an accumulation window. Conversely, persistent STH selling could push prices toward the next support around $105,000. Traders should monitor the STH MVRV, realized losses, LTH sell-side risk, and seller exhaustion indicators for confirmation of a potential rebound or downside extension.
Neutral
On-chain metrics show that short-term holders have realized significant losses and capitulated, while long-term holders remain confident and selling activity has begun to exhaust. Historically, similar STH capitulation episodes have marked market lows and preceded stronger rebounds once demand returns. However, actual price direction hinges on renewed buying and broader macro factors. In the short term, the market may enter a consolidation phase, displaying neutral behavior as weak hands clear out. Over the longer term, if demand re-emerges and LTHs continue to absorb supply, Bitcoin could resume its uptrend.