Bitcoin Approaches $107K STH Cost Basis Support

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s spot price is fast closing in on the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price of $107,000. This on-chain metric measures the average cost basis for addresses that bought BTC within the last 155 days. Historically, the STH Realized Price acts as a key support in up-trends—weak hands tend to accumulate on dips to their cost basis—while in down-trends it becomes resistance. In tandem, Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at approximately $100,700, marking a lower technical support level. A retest of the zone between $100,700 and $107,000 could trigger renewed buying or, if broken, accelerate bearish momentum. Traders should watch for volume shifts and price action within this support band to gauge short-term bullish or bearish conviction.
Neutral
Bitcoin’s decline toward the $107K STH Realized Price and the nearby 200-day SMA creates an ambiguous market outlook. Historically, retests of the STH cost basis have prompted short-term holders to buy, offering a bullish bounce, while breaking below this level can trigger stop-loss orders and exacerbate selling pressure. The convergence of these two support metrics makes the zone critical: a hold suggests accumulation and a potential bull resumption, whereas a breach could confirm bearish momentum. In the short term, traders will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach, entering positions only after confirmation of support strength or failure. Over the long term, if Bitcoin maintains above its STH Realized Price and 200-day SMA, investor confidence may rebuild, but a sustained break risks undermining market stability and triggering deeper corrections.