Bitcoin Recovery Eases Short-Term Holder Losses; 41,800 BTC Shifted to Exchanges
On-chain metrics show short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs, coins held ≤155 days) saw average unrealized losses fall from over 10% to about 6.4% during the recent rally. The STH Realized Price — the average cost basis for STHs — sits near $99,412, and Bitcoin’s spot price is approaching that level. As prices recovered, STHs deposited roughly 41,800 BTC to exchanges, a shift from loss-driven selling toward profit-taking. CryptoQuant data indicates an increasing share of STH transactions are now in profit, which could reinforce the rally if maintained. Traders should watch the STH Realized Price crossover: a sustained move above it would mean many short-term holders enter profit and could accelerate sell-side pressure or, conversely, support momentum if holders choose to HODL. Key metrics: average STH unrealized loss ~6.4%, 41,800 BTC moved to exchanges, STH Realized Price ≈ $99,412. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, short-term holders, STH Realized Price, profit taking, on-chain data.
Bullish
The report points to a reduced average unrealized loss among short-term holders and a rising share of STHs moving coins to exchanges as profit-taking rather than panic-selling. Historically, moving above the STH Realized Price marks a sentiment inflection: holders shift from loss mitigation to profit management, which often accompanies price recoveries. The 41,800 BTC transferred to exchanges could increase near-term sell pressure, but the context — deposits coinciding with rising prices and more STH transactions in profit — suggests distribution is profit-taking, not distressed capitulation. In the short term this can create volatility as some STHs lock gains, but overall it supports a bullish outlook because realized profits typically reduce forced liquidation risk and can validate the recovery. In the long term, sustained price above the STH Realized Price improves market confidence and may encourage longer holding periods, aiding stability. Similar past episodes (e.g., post-capitulation rallies) show that once short-term holder losses contract and realized-price crossovers occur, markets tend to consolidate higher, provided macro factors remain supportive. Traders should monitor exchange inflows, STH Realized Price, and on-chain profit ratios for signs of durable continuation or renewed selling.