Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Remain Underwater as Market Stress Persists
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $88,000 area but remains capped below the key $90,000 resistance, showing weak upside momentum and market indecision. On-chain analyst Axel Adler reports short-term holders (STHs, coins held <155 days) are trading underwater: the STH Realized Price has trended lower since mid-October, with weekly changes negative and recent local lows. This indicates weak incoming demand, ongoing redistribution by STHs at lower prices, and persistent overhead selling rather than forced capitulation. Price action: +0.9% week, +2.3% month, but −26.7% over 90 days. Technicals show BTC above rising 100-week and 200-week moving averages (long-term structure intact) while the flattened 50-week MA acts as immediate resistance inside a $90k–$95k supply zone. On Adler’s model, continued conditions imply roughly a 3% weekly downside. For traders, the key signals are: STH profitability needs to recover to relieve selling pressure; volume declining suggests reduced participation and potential for extended consolidation or a deeper corrective move; holding above the 100-week MA contains structural downside but failure to reclaim the 50-week MA keeps risk elevated. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, short-term holders, STH Realized Price, market stress, on-chain indicators.
Bearish
The article describes persistent selling pressure from short-term holders and weak incoming demand, evidenced by a declining STH Realized Price and negative weekly changes. These on-chain signals typically precede continued downside or prolonged consolidation because new buyers are price-insensitive and STHs are redistributing at lower levels rather than accumulating. Technicals are mixed: long-term structure remains supported by the 100- and 200-week moving averages, which limits catastrophic downside, but failure to clear the 50-week MA and the $90k–$95k supply zone keeps immediate upside capped. Declining volume and a deeply negative 90-day return (−26.7%) increase the probability of further corrective action or extended range-bound trading. Historically, similar patterns—STHs underwater, falling realized prices, and low volume—have coincided with multi-week consolidations or multi-month corrections before meaningful bull resumption (examples: post-2017/2018 drawdown phases and 2022 extended bear period). For traders: expect elevated volatility and lower risk-reward for long positions until STH profitability stabilizes and volume returns. Short-term strategies favor risk-managed shorts or options hedges around resistance; longer-term holders should monitor the 100-week MA as structural support and watch for a sustained reclaim of the 50-week MA and rising STH Realized Price as signals of renewed demand.