Institutional Demand Challenges Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model forecasts a $222,000 peak based on halvings but overlooks demand-side factors. Institutional demand from ETPs and corporate treasury holdings now exceeds the latest halving’s annual supply cut by over seven times, creating a support floor above $100,000. Traders should monitor ETP inflows, on-chain whale accumulation and global liquidity trends such as M2 money supply growth. While some analysts project BTC to hit $200,000 by end-2025 or even $500,000 in 2026, skeptics argue that such targets require extreme catalysts. Incorporating demand indicators alongside supply metrics can yield more accurate Bitcoin price forecasts and better reflect evolving market dynamics.
Bullish
The news highlights robust institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETPs and corporate treasury holdings that now outweigh supply reductions by over seven times. This demand-side support creates a price floor above $100,000 and undercuts purely supply-driven models like the Stock-to-Flow Model. In the short term, sustained ETP inflows and on-chain whale accumulation can drive upward momentum and reduce volatility around halving events. Over the long term, combining demand indicators with supply metrics may reinforce the bull case and facilitate more accurate price forecasts. Despite some skeptical voices, the net effect of rising institutional adoption is bullish for Bitcoin price.