Bitcoin Supply Crunch: Firms Buy 4× Miners’ Daily Output
A new report highlights a growing bitcoin supply crunch as institutional buyers surge past miner output. Data from River shows that in early 2025, publicly traded treasury firms and private businesses acquired about 1,755 BTC per day, while ETFs and other vehicles added roughly 1,430 BTC daily. Institutional demand now totals over 3,000 BTC each day, far exceeding miners’ steady output of around 450 BTC. Corporate holdings have surpassed 1 million BTC, led by MicroStrategy’s 632,457 BTC. This dynamic creates a potential bitcoin supply shortage, or “synthetic halving,” as large stakeholders lock coins away long term. Although many purchases occur OTC to limit price impact, thinning exchange reserves heighten the risk of volatility. Traders should watch stretched liquidity, which could fuel bullish momentum but also trigger sharp swings if flows reverse.
Bullish
This development is categorized as bullish because a sustained supply-demand imbalance typically supports upward price pressure. Institutional buyers are locking away more than 3,000 BTC daily—over four times miners’ output—creating a real bitcoin supply shortage. Historically, reduced available supply around protocol halvings and major accumulation phases has coincided with significant price rallies, such as those in 2016–2017 and 2020–2021. Although OTC purchases can dampen immediate market impact, falling exchange reserves reduce liquidity and make prices more sensitive to order flow. In the short term, traders may see accelerated bullish breaks on dwindling supply; in the medium to long term, this structural shortage underpins a higher price floor. However, thin liquidity also raises the risk of sharp pullbacks if large holders unwind positions, so market participants should prepare for heightened volatility.