Bitcoin Supply-in-Loss Hits 10-Month High — On‑Chain Signals Flag Early Bear Risk
Bitcoin’s share of circulating supply in loss has risen to the mid-40% range, a 10‑month high, prompting warnings that on‑chain breadth deterioration could mark an early transition into a bear phase. CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu highlighted that a rising supply-in-loss combined with falling supply-in-profit is uncharacteristic of healthy mid-cycle corrections; historically, similar expansions have preceded extended downside and late-stage capitulation rather than quick rebounds. The indicator shows more holders underwater even though price remains above realized price, which can quietly increase sell pressure as liquidity thins. Woominkyu says downside risk remains unresolved unless the loss share stabilizes and profit share recovers. An alternative view from analyst Ali Charts compares Bitcoin’s current long consolidation to Alphabet’s historical consolidation-then-breakout pattern, suggesting the range could resolve into a renewed uptrend if key resistance breaks. Key takeaways for traders: supply-in-loss ≈ mid-40% (10‑month high); price still above realized value; breadth deterioration increases short-term downside risk; but a breakout from consolidation could produce bullish continuation. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, supply in loss, realized price. Secondary keywords: on-chain, CryptoQuant, consolidation, breakout, bear signal.
Bearish
The on‑chain metric — supply in loss rising to the mid‑40% range — signals breadth deterioration: a larger share of circulating BTC is underwater even while price remains above realized price. Historically, similar expansions in supply-in-loss have accompanied market stress, deeper price compression, and late-stage capitulation rather than routine mid-cycle pullbacks. That increases the probability of further downside in the short to medium term as underwater holders may capitulate and liquidity thins, amplifying moves downward. The alternative thesis (comparison to Alphabet’s consolidation then breakout) is plausible but conditional: it requires a decisive breakout of resistance and re-expansion of supply-in-profit. Given current readings and historical precedents cited by analysts, the immediate risk profile is skewed bearish for BTC price until loss share stabilizes and profit share recovers. Traders should weigh higher short-term downside risk, manage position sizing, consider protective stops or hedges, and watch for confirmation from profit-share recovery or a breakout that would shift the view back toward bullish continuation.