Bitcoin surges above $78k on ceasefire extension and liquidity
Bitcoin price extended gains and traded above $78,000 on Wednesday after a near 6% weekly surge. BTC hit $78,452, its highest level since Feb. 3, as a two-week US ceasefire was extended. The ceasefire was set to expire April 22, but was prolonged at Pakistan’s request until Washington receives a unified proposal from Tehran. Despite Trump noting the US blockade of Iranian seaports remains, the extension triggered a broad risk-on move that lifted Bitcoin.
Liquidity expectations also supported the rally. This week, the US Treasury plans to buy back $15 billion of its own debt—matching the largest buyback in history—which could add liquidity and indirectly benefit Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive asset.
Institutional flows were positive but cautious. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a mild inflow of $11.84 million on Tuesday, down from $238.37 million the prior day, reflecting uncertainty around ongoing US-Iran peace talks. If ETF inflows stabilize or rise, Bitcoin could see additional upside.
Technicals remain constructive. On the BTC/USD 4-hour chart, Bitcoin holds above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs (72,345 and 75,368). RSI and MACD are supportive, but resistance is seen near the 78,962 Fibonacci level, the psychological $80,000 mark, and the 200-day EMA at 82,769. Key supports include 75,680 and the 100-day EMA area around 75,368, with deeper support near 74,487.
Bullish
This news is broadly bullish for Bitcoin. The ceasefire extension reduces near-term geopolitical downside, which has historically encouraged “risk-on” positioning across liquid markets—an effect similar to prior periods when de-escalation headlines coincided with crypto breakouts. At the same time, the planned US Treasury $15B debt buyback points to a potential liquidity tailwind. Liquidity injections or expectations of tighter funding conditions often support BTC when flows into risk assets increase.
However, ETF data is mixed: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw only modest inflows ($11.84M) after a much larger prior-day inflow. That suggests investors are cautious and may wait for clearer signals from US-Iran talks. In the short term, the geopolitical headline and Treasury buyback expectations can keep momentum positive and sustain bids above key moving averages. In the longer term, follow-through will likely depend on whether ETF inflows re-accelerate and whether liquidity conditions genuinely improve; otherwise, rallies could consolidate near resistance ($78,962–$80,000).