Fed Eyes July Rate Cut Amid Tariffs and Inflation

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled on CNBC that the Fed is considering interest rate cuts as soon as the July 29–30 FOMC meeting, citing easing inflation pressures and the need to act before any labor-market slowdown. Despite holding the benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.5% for a fourth straight pause, Fed policymakers remain divided: the dot plot shows seven officials expecting no cuts in 2025, two seeing one cut, and ten projecting two or more. Market odds for a July cut remain low at around 10%, according to CME FedWatch. President Trump’s calls for at least two percentage points of rate cuts to bolster growth contrast with Waller’s gradual, data-driven approach. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that recent tariffs have pushed May inflation to 2.4% but views this effect as a one-off price level change. For crypto traders, earlier interest rate cuts could weaken the dollar and trigger bullish momentum in digital assets, though timing and pace will depend on incoming data and Fed consensus.