Bitcoin Targets $93K as Fed Hike Odds and Yields Fall
Bitcoin could rise to $90,000-$93,000 if Treasury yields decline, inflation cools and spot buying strengthens, according to Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet. The probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike fell to about 23% from 64% a week earlier after September payroll growth came in at just 29,000, well below the 90,000 forecast. Softer employment data has supported Bitcoin by reducing expectations for immediate monetary tightening. However, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above $87,000, showing that profit-taking and existing supply are absorbing demand. Zhang identified $87,400 as the key daily or weekly closing level needed to confirm a breakout. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.65 billion in September and roughly $134 million during October’s first two trading sessions, but these inflows have not yet generated enough buying pressure to clear resistance. Downside levels are $84,000 and $82,000. Stronger-than-expected CPI or PPI data, renewed oil-driven inflation, hawkish Federal Reserve guidance or higher long-term Treasury yields could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure Bitcoin. Traders should monitor ETF flows, Treasury yields, inflation data, spot demand and derivatives leverage.
Neutral
The market impact is neutral because the article presents a conditional bullish scenario rather than a confirmed breakout. Falling October rate-hike odds and weak payrolls are supportive for Bitcoin: similar dovish repricing episodes have often reduced Treasury yields, weakened the dollar and encouraged inflows into risk assets. September’s $2.65 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows also indicates sustained institutional interest. However, Bitcoin remains below the key $87,400 confirmation level, and repeated failures above $87,000 suggest strong overhead supply. ETF inflows alone have not produced enough spot demand to overcome selling pressure. In the short term, a daily or weekly close above $87,400, falling yields and softer CPI or PPI data could trigger momentum toward $90,000-$93,000. Conversely, hot inflation data, hawkish Fed guidance or rising yields could push Bitcoin toward $84,000 and possibly $82,000. Over the longer term, persistent ETF accumulation and easier financial conditions would support a bullish trend, but macroeconomic sensitivity and derivatives leverage could increase volatility. Traders should treat the forecast as a level-based setup, not a guaranteed price target.