Bitcoin tests $63K as long-term holders sell at a loss
Bitcoin is testing the $63,000 level after a risk-off move pressured crypto. Trading around $63,020 on Friday, BTC is down ~2% on the day and about 47% below its October peak of $126,080.
Technically, BTC lost the $65,000 area and dropped to an intraday low near $62,640, breaking below a “$64,500 Put Wall” from this week’s options expiry. Analysts at Hashkey (Tim Sun) said the put open-interest cluster had acted as short-term support.
Macro and positioning are key drivers. Sun linked the decline to cooling risk appetite, global stock corrections and faster deleveraging in semiconductor/AI-linked assets. Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn agreed the move looks like broader risk aversion rather than a crypto-specific fundamental breakdown, noting Bitcoin’s increased sensitivity to rates, geopolitics and sentiment.
On-chain, the sell pressure is concentrated in older coins. Glassnode data shows over 65% of coins moving to exchanges are long-term holders realizing losses, a pattern seen in past bear markets. Until that share falls, Glassnode argued “structural sell pressure” remains dominant. Sun added that 1–2 year holders are gradually exiting after accepting losses, contributing to a weak rebound even after a supportive US inflation report.
ETF flows are stabilizing but not yet decisive. After a $425m outflow on Monday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $181m Tuesday and $108m Wednesday (Farside Investors). Sun called it only a marginal recovery, while Hathorn viewed it as an early sign institutional demand is returning.
Overall, analysts flagged early signs long-term-holder selling intensity may be near a peak, but the market still appears vulnerable to choppy downside.
Bearish
This news is bearish for traders because the dominant sell pressure is not just speculative hedging—it is spot-driven selling from long-term holders. Glassnode’s metric that over 65% of exchange inflows come from long-term holders realizing losses typically appears before bear-market rallies fully stabilize. That dynamic can cap upside and keep downside risk alive even if derivatives leverage looks “uncrowded”.
The article also highlights a technical breakdown: BTC losing the $64,500 Put Wall removes nearby options-based support, increasing the odds of a test of lower liquidity levels.
ETF flows provide some stabilization but not a clear reversal: after a large Monday outflow, inflows on Tue/Wed are “marginal,” so they are more likely to reduce volatility than immediately stop the sell cycle.
Historically, when macro risk-off pressures coincide with long-term holder loss realization, markets often enter a “choppy bottom” regime—periodic relief rallies are possible, but follow-through tends to require a clear reduction in exchange sell pressure or a stronger external catalyst. Expect short-term range volatility around $63K and potential extensions lower if exchange inflows from LTHs persist.