Bitcoin Tests $81K as Cowen Warns of Support Retest
Bitcoin briefly fell to $80,989 before recovering to about $81,305, still down 3.5% over 24 hours. The move put $80,000 back in focus as trader Benjamin Cowen warned that a daily close below Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average could send the price toward the bull market support band. His warning was conditional: the chart he shared showed an unfinished daily candle, so no breakdown had been confirmed.
Trader Mr. Wall Street said he was holding Bitcoin bought at $60,000–$64,000 and had buy orders set between $72,000 and $76,000. He named $93,000 as his first upside target, but did not say when it might be reached. These are his stated positions, not evidence of broader market demand.
A Polymarket contract shown in a post by The Kobeissi Letter put the odds of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by the end of 2026 at 3%. Ether also declined, trading at $2,380.48, down 4.4% over 24 hours. For traders, the key near-term signals are whether Bitcoin closes below its 50-day average and whether it can hold $80,000.
Bearish
The immediate tone is bearish because Bitcoin fell below $81,000 and is trading close to the psychologically important $80,000 level. Cowen’s conditional warning adds a technical risk: a daily close below the 50-day simple moving average could expose the bull market support band to a retest. Ether’s larger 24-hour decline also points to weakness across major crypto assets.
However, the article does not confirm a completed breakdown. Bitcoin recovered from its intraday low, and Cowen’s chart showed an unfinished daily candle. Traders may therefore treat the moving average and $80,000 as levels to monitor rather than assume further losses are certain. Mr. Wall Street’s buy orders at $72,000–$76,000 indicate one trader’s willingness to buy a deeper dip, but do not establish broad demand. The 3% Polymarket probability for Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by the end of 2026 reflects subdued expectations for that specific target, not a reliable forecast of near-term direction.
In the short term, a confirmed close below the 50-day average could encourage risk reduction, stop-loss selling, and tests of lower support. A hold above $80,000 followed by a recovery over nearby resistance could instead ease immediate pressure. Longer term, price behavior around these levels will matter alongside spot demand, ETF flows, and broader risk appetite. Previous failed rebounds near resistance show that technical levels can shape trader positioning, but past moves do not guarantee the next outcome.