Bitcoin Treasury Firms Trade at Deep NAV Discounts
Bitcoin treasury firms have slipped to deep NAV discounts amid flat BTC prices and weak market sentiment. Since mid-2024, companies such as Semler Scientific, Strive and KindlyMD trade at just 0.5–0.8× market-to-NAV (mNAV) due to debt burdens, SPAC declines and stagnant bitcoin prices. Strive’s share price plunged 90% in one month, while other treasury holdings—including Capital B, Smarter Web Company and H100 Group—face similar discounts. Share buyback programs have largely failed to restore premiums: Empery Digital’s $100 million debt-financed repurchase lost 60% in value, and Sequans Communications’ 10% ADS buyback underperformed. Only MicroStrategy retains a NAV premium at 1.39×, though this has halved from early 2024 highs. Some firms are now deploying small bitcoin allocations into low-yield trading strategies, echoing MicroStrategy’s 2022 playbook. Traders should monitor NAV discounts, share buyback announcements and bitcoin price stability for potential entry points in bitcoin treasury firms.
Bearish
Persistent NAV discounts and flat BTC prices signal weak investor confidence in bitcoin treasury firms. Debt obligations and SPAC-related declines have driven mNAV ratios below 1×, while share buybacks have failed to restore premiums. In the short term, limited buying pressure and ongoing valuation risks point to further downside for bitcoin exposure via these firms. Over the longer term, sustained discounts and potential low-yield trading strategies may attract opportunistic inflows, but without a bitcoin price rally and improved sentiment, the outlook remains bearish.