Bitcoin tumbles to $64.3K then rebounds to $66.3K as tariffs and geopolitical risk spark volatile session
Bitcoin dropped from about $67,700 to $64,270 shortly after midnight UTC before recovering to roughly $66,300 by late morning, mirroring weakness and partial recovery in S&P 500 futures. The move occurred during thin liquidity in Asia hours after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed new 15% global tariffs and U.S.-Iran tensions rose, prompting a safe-haven bid that lifted gold to its highest since Jan. 30. Solana (SOL) and SUI fell 7%–8% in low-liquidity conditions, contributing to roughly $270 million in altcoin liquidations. Derivatives flows showed subdued demand: total crypto futures open interest remained below $100 billion, about $500 million of futures positions were liquidated in 24 hours, and bitcoin/ether put options traded at premiums to calls across maturities. Traders bought puts around $58k–$62k; bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility (BVIV) rose over 9% to above 60%. A few tokens (ETHFI, TON) outperformed, while CoinDesk indices saw modest declines. Key implications: increased macro and geopolitical uncertainty elevated volatility and liquidation risk in low-liquidity conditions, with traders favoring hedges (puts) and gold-linked futures seeing inflows. Short-term: heightened tail-risk and choppy trading; long-term: market direction still tied to macro catalysts and bitcoin reclaiming $70k could trigger renewed altcoin upside once liquidity returns.
Bearish
The news conveys a short-term bearish tone. Price action showed a >5% intra-session drop in bitcoin amid thin liquidity, then a partial rebound—typical of risk-off episodes amplified by low market depth. Triggering factors were macro and geopolitical: Trump’s proposed 15% global tariffs and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions pushed investors toward safe havens (gold) and spurred demand for puts. Derivatives data reinforce downside bias: futures open interest remains muted (<$100bn), roughly $500m of futures were liquidated in 24 hours, put options trade at premiums to calls, and BVIV jumped above 60%. These are markers of fear and hedging activity rather than confident accumulation. For traders: expect elevated intraday volatility, wider spreads and order-book fragility—increased risk of stop-run liquidations for leveraged longs. Short-term strategies that suit this setup include buying protective puts, reducing leverage, or opportunistic mean-reversion shorts near relieved spikes. Long-term implications are neutral-to-cautiously bullish only if macro risks abate and bitcoin reclaims key technical levels (e.g., $70k) with restored liquidity; history (e.g., tariff/geopolitical-driven risk-off moves) shows markets can recover once macro clarity returns, but the interim favors risk reduction and hedging.