Bitcoin Handover: Whales Exit, New Buyers Raise Cost Basis

Bitcoin turnover accelerates as early whales offload holdings and new investors absorb supply at higher prices. On-chain data shows long-term holders selling 405,000 BTC (1.9% of circulating supply) over 30 days, with large transfers to exchanges—and a notable whale like Owen Gunden moving over 2,000 BTC to Kraken. This shift disperses ownership from a few low-cost holders to a broader, higher-cost base, pushing the average cost basis toward $110,800. The rising MVRV ratio confirms this structural maturation and signals bullish potential. Ethereum turnover follows a similar path. Institutional products—ETFs and DAT funds—now control about 11% of ETH, and whale wallets (over 100,000 ETH) are accumulating at higher prices while retail sheds positions. This cost-basis reset precedes an expected price rally for ETH. Solana is in an earlier stage of turnover: SOL spot ETFs and DAT inflows account for 2.9% of supply, yet on-chain data remains concentrated among insiders. Institutions are gradually rebalancing into SOL, suggesting that its turnover-driven rally may materialize later in the cycle. Overall market focus is shifting from speculative Bitcoin wealth effects to real-use chains, yield-generating assets, fee-sharing DeFi protocols, stablecoins and RWA, underpinning a bullish medium- to long-term outlook.
Bullish
This Bitcoin turnover reflects a structural shift as whales offload to exchanges and new buyers at higher prices, driving the average cost basis up and lifting MVRV. Historically, such cost‐basis resets among early holders precede major uptrends—as seen after 2017 and 2020 whale redistributions. Ethereum’s similar shift to institutional ownership via ETFs and DAT funds reinforces this bullish thesis, with cost resets often signaling deeper accumulation before price rallies. Solana’s later‐stage turnover suggests its rally may follow Bitcoin and Ethereum in this cycle. Combined with a market rotation toward real‐use chains, yield assets and fee-sharing DeFi, the broader crypto market outlook is bullish in both the short and long term.