Bitcoin under $64K as Saylor cites AI capital rotation; Strategy -$11B
Bitcoin slid below $64K and is trading in a confirmed downtrend, with RSI (14) around 18 (deeply oversold). Michael Saylor (Strategy) argues the selloff is not a Bitcoin fundamentals break, but a “capital rotation” into AI infrastructure. He points to roughly $4B in spot ETF outflows since May 14 and estimates about $400B in AI data-center and chip spending over six months as the money draw.
Strategy’s balance-sheet pressure has worsened: its unrealized loss is estimated above $11B. Strategy holds 843,706 BTC bought at an average cost near $75,700, with the stack valued around $52.6B versus a ~$63.8B cost basis. The firm also sold 32 BTC for $2.5M on June 1 to cover preferred-stock dividend obligations, its first divestment since 2022. STRC preferred stock fell to about $94.6.
At the same time, Atlas Capital CEO Reza Bundy (Nouriel Roubini’s associate) warned Bitcoin could drop as much as 70% in six months toward $26K–$30K, while still projecting a multi-year recovery to $500K per coin. Traders are watching key technical levels: support at ~$62,910, then ~$61,382 and ~$59,912 (near the 200-week SMA zone). A reclaim of ~$66,030 on rising volume would weaken the bearish thesis.
Market structure remains fragile across crypto after the broader market shed over $2T from the October 2025 peak. A US policy update is also notable for traders: mortgage collateral backed by Bitcoin held at regulated exchanges (via Coinbase) is now being recognized, which could support demand/usage, including for USDC as eligible collateral.
Bearish
The news is predominantly bearish for traders in the short run. Bitcoin is already below $64K with RSI around 18, suggesting oversold conditions, but the article notes that market structure is still deteriorating and MACD remains bearish—this often means “bounce risk” without a confirmed trend reversal. Strategy’s ~$11B estimated unrealized loss and the first BTC sale since 2022 add supply/pressure optics, which can keep momentum sellers active.
Even though Michael Saylor frames the move as an AI “capital rotation,” that narrative is more about macro/sector preference than immediate downside protection. Bundy’s warning of a potential 70% drawdown raises tail-risk expectations, which can widen trading ranges and encourage hedging.
Historically, when BTC breaks down and key moving-average zones are threatened (e.g., similar bear-market structures seen in 2022), rallies often fail near resistance until a decisive reclaim occurs with volume. The cited levels ($66,030 then $67,516) matter: if Bitcoin cannot reclaim them, traders may keep targeting the deeper supports around ~$61,382 and ~$59,912. In the longer term, the AI-miner “infrastructure” bid and the regulatory recognition of Bitcoin collateral at regulated exchanges could support adoption, but those impacts are less immediate than current technical/supply pressures.