JPMorgan Values Bitcoin $126K as Volatility Drops vs Gold
Bitcoin’s six-month volatility has slumped from nearly 60% to a historic low of 30%, narrowing its risk gap with gold. JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted model values Bitcoin at US$126,000—a 13% premium over the current US$111,000 price. Corporate treasuries now hold over 6% of total supply, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn US$14.8 billion this year, with BlackRock managing US$58 billion. Traders watch the US$117,570 support level to confirm a sustained uptrend. Analysts say institutional adoption and clearer regulation reinforce Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, and parity with gold’s full market cap could drive BTC above US$1 million by the early 2030s.
Bullish
JPMorgan’s report that Bitcoin’s six-month volatility has halved and its fair value stands at US$126,000 underpins a bullish market outlook. In the short term, reduced volatility and strong ETF inflows—US$14.8 billion this year—could attract additional institutional capital, supporting price stability and upward momentum. Long-term, corporate treasury accumulation exceeding 6% of supply and the potential for parity with gold’s full market cap—driving BTC toward US$1 million by the early 2030s—suggest structural demand growth. However, traders should watch the US$117,570 support level to avoid a pullback, as sustaining this floor is key to confirming further upside.