Bitcoin underwater supply crosses 10m: MVRV nears cycle bottom
Bitcoin underwater supply has crossed 10 million coins, with “Supply in Loss” reaching 10.46 million BTC for the first time this cycle. As BTC slid toward the $60,000–$62,000 range, market profitability compressed and unrealized losses widened across holder cohorts.
On valuation, Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is down to about 1.1. That suggests the market has largely erased the speculative premium from the prior rally. A further drop toward the low $50,000s could push MVRV closer to 1.0—levels that have historically appeared around major cycle lows.
At the same time, long-term holders have shifted back toward net accumulation. Long-Term Holder Net Position Change turned positive after months of mixed flows, with this cohort absorbing roughly 30,000–35,000 BTC over a 30-day period (per Glassnode). This pattern can reduce sell-side pressure once stressed holders stabilize, but the article notes the pace remains measured.
Traders should watch whether buyers continue absorbing this Bitcoin underwater supply before full capitulation resumes. Without follow-through, deeper downside could still occur even as indicators move toward typical bottoming conditions.
Neutral
The article presents mixed signals. On one hand, Bitcoin underwater supply crossing 10 million and MVRV sliding toward ~1.1 (with a pathway to ~1.0 near major cycle lows) typically aligns with “valuation reset” conditions seen near past bottoms. On the other hand, it does not confirm a durable demand recovery; it only notes long-term holders are accumulating at a measured pace.
Historically, when underwater supply peaks and MVRV resets, early bounces can occur—but deeper capitulation sometimes follows if broader buyers don’t step in. Here, long-term holder net accumulation (30k–35k BTC/30 days) may thin sell-side pressure gradually, supporting range stabilization. Still, the absence of aggressive accumulation by the wider market keeps the risk of renewed downside elevated.
For short-term trading, expect volatility around the $60k–$62k area with sentiment sensitive to whether MVRV continues falling and whether underwater supply keeps being absorbed. Long-term, the trend is more constructive than bearish because profitability deterioration is paired with early net accumulation—yet traders should wait for confirmation (sustained buy absorption and stabilization of MVRV near/above 1.0).