Bitwise: Bitcoin Poised for Upside Despite Macro Uncertainty
Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch says Bitcoin may have significant upside from current levels, arguing the cryptocurrency is pricing in an overly bearish macro outlook. Dragosch compared today’s setup to March 2020 during COVID, calling the risk-reward asymmetry “extreme” and noting Bitcoin has already discounted much bad news including aggressive Fed quantitative tightening and the FTX collapse. Bitcoin fell from an October all-time high near $125,100 after a large liquidation event and policy/tariff headlines, dropping below $100,000 in mid-November and briefly under $90,000 before rebounding. Over the past 30 days BTC is down about 17.3% (CoinMarketCap). Despite the pullback, crypto adoption continues in areas like crypto withdrawals in online casinos and new regional initiatives (eg. UAE licensing). Other market voices cited include trader Alessio Rastani, who sees recurring setups that often precede rallies, and BitMine chair Tom Lee, who expects BTC could reclaim $100,000 or set new highs. The report suggests macro-driven recovery into 2026 could support a Bitcoin rebound, but investors should note crypto’s high risk and volatility.
Bullish
Net impact: bullish. The article presents a view from Bitwise research that Bitcoin’s current price has priced in an overly pessimistic macro scenario, creating an asymmetric risk-reward similar to post-COVID conditions. Historical parallels (March 2020) and bullish forecasts from some market participants (Tom Lee, Alessio Rastani’s recurrence argument) support the idea of a meaningful rebound if macro growth recovers. Short-term implications: elevated volatility and downside risk remain—recent large liquidations and a 17% 30-day drop show vulnerability to headlines and leverage unwind, so traders should expect sharp intraday moves and use stop/risk management. Medium-to-long-term implications: if U.S. growth and liquidity conditions improve or if recession fears fade, Bitcoin could see a strong recovery as pessimistic pricing reverses and demand from institutional and on-chain adoption resumes. Conversely, persistent tightening or new systemic shocks could invalidate the bullish case. Traders should monitor macro indicators (Fed policy, recession odds), on-chain flows, liquidation metrics, and major headlines (regulation, exchange events) for trade timing.