Bitcoin slides as $2.81B exits U.S. ETFs; retail must shoulder demand
Bitcoin has entered a pronounced bearish phase as approximately $1.163 trillion of market cap has been erased since its October peak. U.S. institutional demand has waned: the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative (-0.04), indicating weaker U.S. buying versus offshore markets. NetFlow data shows about $2.81 billion left U.S. spot BTC ETFs in the past two months ($1.60B in January, $1.21B year-to-date in February). Retail activity on Binance offers a possible stabiliser — the Binance Buying Power Index fell to -0.07, a historical low last seen in July 2024 when BTC later consolidated then rallied. Spot netflow across exchanges shows modest net buying (~$305M over three days), with average daily demand near $100M; analysts note demand would need to rise toward $300M daily to materially improve recovery prospects. Conclusion for traders: institutional selling has pressured price; retail buying could stabilise but is currently weak. Continued institutional outflows or insufficient spot demand would likely keep Bitcoin fragile and volatile in the short term.
Bearish
The article outlines sustained institutional selling—$2.81B outflows from U.S. spot BTC ETFs over two months—and weak institutional indicators (negative Coinbase Premium). These factors increase supply pressure and reduce a traditionally deep-pocketed buyer cohort. Retail flows on Binance show potential but are currently limited: the Binance Buying Power Index at -0.07 signals stressed retail buying power, and spot net purchases ($305M over three days) are small relative to liquidity needs. Historically, similar extreme lows in buying-power indices preceded both deeper declines (2022–2023) and later recoveries (mid-2024), meaning outcomes depend on whether retail demand can scale. For traders, short-term risk is elevated: prices are likely to remain fragile and susceptible to further declines if institutional outflows persist or retail fails to increase. Volatility should be expected, favouring short-term risk management (tight stops, position sizing, hedges). Longer-term outlook is neutral-to-bearish until spot demand sustainably rises; if retail or alternative buyers (e.g., overseas institutions) step in at scale, a recovery could follow as in late-2024, but that requires a material uptick in daily net buying (roughly 2–3x current levels).