Bitcoin Rally Prospects After US Shutdown: What Traders Expect

Published: 2025-11-12 00:16:38 |

Traders eye a potential Bitcoin rally reminiscent of the 2019 shutdown rebound. Bitcoin remains under pressure after falling below $105,000 this week, but comparisons to its 300% surge following the last US government shutdown are fuelling speculation. Between January and June 2019, Bitcoin climbed from $3,500 to nearly $14,000 as weak holders were purged and selling pressure eased. Today, Bitcoin’s drawdown stems from a peak above $126,000 driven by robust ETF inflows and policy signals. A smooth government reopening could restore liquidity, resume ETF approvals and spark further gains. On-chain data shows exchange reserves dwindling and whales accumulating, supporting bullish momentum. Altcoins like Ethereum and Solana have also recovered alongside Bitcoin, indicating broader market confidence. While replicating a >300% rally to $400,000 is unlikely, a 30–70% upswing could lift Bitcoin toward $130,000–$170,000. Traders should monitor funding details, macroeconomic indicators and ETF developments to navigate short-term volatility and assess long-term trend shifts.

Bullish

The outlook is bullish. Historical precedent from the 2019 post-shutdown rally shows that clearing policy uncertainty can trigger substantial gains—Bitcoin surged 300% from January to June 2019. Current on-chain metrics, including falling exchange reserves and whale accumulation, signal renewed buying pressure. A smooth US government reopening in 2025 is likely to restore liquidity, resume ETF approvals and maintain strong ETF inflows, reinforcing institutional demand. Altcoin recoveries alongside Bitcoin suggest broader risk-on sentiment. Near-term catalysts such as macroeconomic data and final funding votes could drive volatility, but the underlying conditions—reduced selling pressure, sustained institutional interest and clearer policy guidance—support a bullish trend. Long term, continued ETF inflows and resumed corporate actions may establish higher price floors and foster a stable uptrend, targeting $130,000–$170,000.