BTC 90-Day Volatility Hits Record Low on ETF Inflows
Since the US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, Bitcoin volatility measured by 90-day realized volatility has fallen below 40%, marking its lowest level in almost two years. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas notes that implied volatility dipped to 28% in June, while realized volatility ranged between 22% and 25%. This decline comes as BTC price climbed over 250% following BlackRock’s ETF filing. Steady institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a solid price floor and reduced price swings. The volatility gap between Bitcoin and gold has narrowed to under twice gold’s typical level, highlighting increased market stability. By contrast, Ether volatility remains significantly higher despite the launch of spot ETH ETFs, underscoring that volatility suppression is strongest where ETF flows are largest. Traders may adjust strategies in response to lower volatility and improved market stability.
Bullish
The record decline in Bitcoin volatility driven by sustained ETF inflows points to stronger price support and reduced risk, which tends to attract more institutional and risk-averse investors. In the short term, lower volatility may discourage extreme speculative moves but should stabilize price action and encourage position adjustments. Over the long term, the narrowing volatility gap with gold and the growth of regulated ETF products reinforce Bitcoin’s standing as a credible alternative asset, supporting a bullish outlook.