Bitcoin Volatility Matches Nvidia but Far Exceeds the Euro
Bitcoin’s 90-day realized volatility was about 38% on Thursday, according to CoinDesk calculations. That is close to Nvidia’s 37%, but well above gold’s 23.5% and the S&P 500’s 11%. The euro-dollar pair was much steadier at 4.6%, making Bitcoin roughly eight times more volatile.
Bitcoin volatility has declined over time: its average was about 58% since January 2020 and it peaked at 134% in June 2020. Its lowest reading, 27.5%, came in September 2025. The figures show that Bitcoin has become less volatile but remains riskier than major traditional assets, a factor for traders weighing portfolio diversification and position sizing.
A separate market signal showed the S&P 500’s VIX above its 200-day average, while Bitcoin’s implied-volatility gauge, BVIV, remained below its own 200-day average. This points to rising expected turbulence in equities but comparatively restrained expectations for Bitcoin, although that could change if volatility spreads across markets.
Neutral
The report is primarily a comparison of volatility measures, not a new catalyst for Bitcoin demand, supply or regulation. Its direct market impact is therefore likely limited, supporting a neutral view. Bitcoin’s 90-day realized volatility of about 38% is close to Nvidia’s but remains far above gold, the S&P 500 and EUR/USD. That difference matters to traders because it can affect position sizing, leverage and portfolio risk, but the data alone does not establish a clear price direction.
In the short term, the contrast between a VIX above its 200-day average and BVIV below its own average suggests equity traders are pricing greater turbulence than Bitcoin options markets. If volatility spreads from equities, correlated selling or a shift in risk appetite could still move BTC sharply; implied volatility can also rise quickly when traders rush to hedge. Conversely, Bitcoin’s relatively restrained implied-volatility reading may indicate that options traders are not yet anticipating an immediate surge in price swings.
Over the longer term, the decline from Bitcoin’s historical volatility average of about 58% since 2020, and its 134% peak in June 2020, suggests improving stability. But its volatility remains much higher than that of major traditional assets, so Bitcoin may not yet provide the same defensive or currency-like profile. As in previous episodes when macroeconomic uncertainty drove volatility across asset classes, realized volatility and options indicators should be monitored together. Neither guarantees future performance, and this report alone is not a bullish or bearish trading signal.