Bitcoin Volatility Rises as Bond Yields Near 20-Year Highs
Bitcoin traded around $78,000 at the start of the US session as rising Treasury yields increased pressure on risk assets. BTC briefly rebounded after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he had not yet intervened in the long end of the yield curve and remained comfortable with higher yields.
The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.76%, its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year yield rose to 5.269%, just six basis points below its highest level since January 2007. Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter said the bond market appeared to be ignoring Treasury measures, while Ray Dalio warned of future US debt risks and identified gold and Bitcoin as potential hedges.
US stocks also weakened, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite down about 0.4%. Bitcoin held its 50-week exponential moving average near $77,269, a key support level for bulls. However, trader Rekt Capital highlighted a hidden bearish divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index. The daily RSI stood at 70.7, remaining in overbought territory and suggesting weakening short-term momentum.
Bitcoin’s month-to-date gain approached 25%, its strongest August performance since 2017. Traders should monitor the $77,269 support level, Treasury yields, and RSI momentum for signs of either a continuation higher or a month-end pullback.
Bearish
The immediate market bias is bearish because rising US Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and can encourage risk reduction across equities and crypto. The 10-year yield at 4.76% and the 30-year yield near a 20-year high indicate persistent bond-market stress despite proposed Treasury buybacks. Similar episodes of sharply higher yields, including the 2022 tightening cycle, generally increased volatility and pressured Bitcoin through tighter financial conditions and weaker liquidity.
Bitcoin’s defense of the $77,269 50-week EMA is a constructive technical signal and could support a rebound if yields stabilise or Treasury intervention becomes credible. However, the daily RSI at 70.7 and the reported hidden bearish divergence suggest that momentum is weakening after a nearly 25% monthly gain. This raises the risk of profit-taking and a month-end pullback, particularly while US equities are also under pressure.
In the short term, traders may react to movements in Treasury yields, the dollar, US economic data, and comments from Treasury or Federal Reserve officials. A decisive break below the 50-week EMA could accelerate selling, while a sustained recovery above recent highs would weaken the bearish case. Over the longer term, concerns about US debt and bond-market credibility could support Bitcoin as a diversification or hedge asset, but that benefit may emerge only after periods of liquidity stress and elevated volatility.