Bitcoin ETF Outflows, Tight Range Signal Volatility Spike
Bitcoin ended October down 3.7%, marking its worst ‘Uptober’ since 2018. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $679 million in outflows over two days—$488 million on Thursday and $191 million on Friday—signalling renewed institutional sell pressure. Despite the Fed’s rate cut, Bitcoin failed to sustain a rally.
Bitcoin price has been confined to a tight $107,000–$116,000 trading range. Record-narrow monthly Bollinger Bands point to an imminent volatility spike. Traders eye a break above $116K to spark bullish momentum, while a weekly close below $100K would confirm a downtrend.
Historically, November delivers an average 42.5% gain, but caution prevails amid ongoing ETF outflows and institutional uncertainty. With volatility indicators at extremes, traders brace for sharp price swings in the near term.
Bearish
Heavy ETF outflows totaling $679 million and Bitcoin’s failure to sustain a rally after the Fed rate cut underline renewed institutional sell pressure. The price trading within a narrow $107K–$116K range, coupled with record-tight Bollinger Bands, raises the risk of a downside breakout. A weekly close below $100K would confirm a downtrend, outweighing historical November gains and suggesting near-term bearish momentum.