Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin’s Volatility Can Be Lower Than NVIDIA — Implications for 401(k) Inclusion
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argued that recent volatility metrics weaken the case against including Bitcoin in retirement plans. In an interview with Investopedia, Hougan cited 30-day volatility of roughly 45% for Bitcoin versus about 55% for NVIDIA (NVDA), and 90-day figures of ~60% for Bitcoin and ~65% for NVIDIA. He and Bitwise use these comparisons to challenge the perception that Bitcoin is categorically too volatile for 401(k) and pension allocations. The debate follows an executive order enabling retirement funds to consider crypto holdings and opposition from lawmakers such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, who warned of investor protection risks. The article outlines drivers behind growing institutional adoption — improved custody, regulatory guidance, academic research on diversification, and new crypto investment products — and notes that some plan providers and international pension funds are piloting limited allocations. Regulators (including the US Department of Labor) emphasize fiduciary due diligence, custody, valuation, and participant education. For traders, the piece highlights evolving policy risk, potential inflows into BTC from retirement channels, and comparative volatility data that may affect relative risk assessments versus high-volatility tech stocks.
Neutral
The news is neutral overall. Bitwise’s volatility comparison and the executive order opening retirement funds to crypto introduce a credible pathway for future BTC inflows, which is a constructive structural catalyst. Comparable or lower short-term volatility versus a high-beta tech stock (NVIDIA) can shift some institutional and plan-sponsor sentiment positively, reducing one argument against allocation. However, material counterweights remain: political pushback (e.g., Senator Warren), unresolved regulatory implementation details, fiduciary risk concerns, and the still-higher volatility of BTC versus broad-market assets. In the short term, traders may see modest BTC price sensitivity to headlines about retirement-plan adoption or regulatory developments — spikes on perceived wins, drops on political resistance. In the medium-to-long term, gradual inclusion of crypto in retirement vehicles could be bullish by increasing demand and legitimizing custody/operational infrastructure, but meaningful flows will likely be phased and contingent on clearer rules and proven operational safeguards. Past parallels: ETF approvals and institutional product launches produced multi-stage bullish runs rather than immediate parabolic moves. Expect increased volatility around policy milestones and pilot program announcements rather than a single decisive market move.