Bitwise: Bitcoin Less Volatile than Nvidia; Institutional ETF Inflows vs Long‑Term Holder Selling
Bitwise reports that Bitcoin (BTC) showed lower volatility than Nvidia (NVDA) in 2025 and expects the trend to continue into 2026. In 2025 BTC ranged roughly $75,000 (April) to an October high near $126,000 (~68% swing) versus Nvidia’s roughly 120% swing. Bitwise attributes reduced BTC volatility to broader institutional adoption, the growth of spot BTC ETFs and traditional investment products, and forecasts increased allocations from banks and wealth managers (Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch named). The firm expects continued ETF inflows, accelerated on‑chain development, clearer crypto‑friendly regulation, and the potential for a new BTC all‑time high and a weakening of the historical four‑year boom‑bust cycle. However, newer research from K33 and CryptoQuant highlights heavy long‑term holder selling: about 1.6M previously dormant coins moved since early 2023 (~$140B) and nearly $300B of >1‑year dormant coins reentered markets in 2025; CryptoQuant flagged one of the largest long‑term holder distributions in over five years in the past 30 days. Traders should weigh the bullish structural drivers (institutional demand, spot ETF liquidity, regulatory clarity) against persistent long‑term‑holder supply and macro risks (halving, interest rates, leverage). Near term, steady selling from long‑term holders can exert downside pressure despite improving institutional flows; longer term, greater institutional adoption and ETF inflows are constructive for BTC volatility compression and price discovery.
Bullish
Net impact on BTC is classified as bullish because Bitwise’s thesis centers on structural, demand‑side improvements: broader institutional adoption, growing allocations to spot BTC ETFs, improved regulatory clarity, and anticipated on‑chain development. These factors support higher long‑term demand, reduced realised volatility, and the possibility of new all‑time highs. However, meaningful caveats exist for traders: large-scale selling by long‑term holders (per K33 and CryptoQuant) injects substantial supply that can cap or reverse rallies in the short term. Consequently: - Short term (days–weeks): balanced to negative risk — heavy long‑term‑holder distributions and macro risks (rate moves, halving, leverage) can cause drawdowns despite ETF inflows. Expect volatility spikes and potential rapid sell‑offs. - Medium term (weeks–months): mixed — steady ETF inflows and clearer institutional pipelines may absorb supply, but persistent holder selling could prolong consolidation. - Long term (quarters+): positive — sustained institutional allocations and productization of BTC (spot ETFs, bank/wealth manager participation) should compress volatility and be constructive for price discovery. For traders: manage position sizing and time horizons, watch ETF flows, on‑chain long‑term holder flow metrics, and regulatory announcements as primary trade catalysts.