Why Gold and Silver Soared in 2025 While Bitcoin Lagged
Gold and silver reached fresh all-time highs in 2025 as a softer dollar, rising expectations for 2026 Fed rate cuts, increased geopolitical risk, and heavy central bank and retail buying drove safe-haven flows. Silver’s rally was amplified by extraordinary industrial demand from photovoltaics and electronics and tight supply, producing a macro-plus-industrial bid. Platinum and palladium also advanced. By contrast, Bitcoin traded rangebound and underperformed: year-to-date down modestly and roughly 30% below its October peak as investors rotated into lower‑risk assets. Crypto behaved like a high‑beta risk asset, correlating with equities and relying on speculative demand and ETF flows rather than industrial or physical demand. Analysts say Bitcoin needs clearer regulation, renewed institutional allocation, or macro scenarios that highlight on‑chain censorship resistance and programmability to regain momentum. For traders, monitor crypto ETF flows and regulatory signals, Fed guidance and dollar strength, and industrial demand indicators for silver; these will drive relative performance between hard assets and Bitcoin in the short term. If rate cuts and liquidity improvement materialize and risk appetite returns, crypto could follow; until then capital may favor precious metals.
Bearish
The combined reporting points to a net negative price impact on Bitcoin. Precious metals’ record rallies attracted risk‑off capital because of a weaker dollar, explicit Fed rate‑cut expectations and heightened geopolitical risk. Silver additionally benefited from strong industrial demand and tight supply, giving metals both macro and real‑economy support that crypto lacks. Bitcoin’s demand profile remains dependent on speculative flows and ETFs and shows high correlation with equities; without clearer regulation, renewed institutional allocation, or a macro reversal (rate cuts + liquidity) the catalysts needed to reverse Bitcoin’s underperformance are absent. Short term, traders are likely to see continued outflows or muted inflows into crypto versus hard assets, keeping downward pressure or rangebound trading on BTC. Over the medium-to-long term, if the Fed pivots to cuts, the dollar weakens further, or regulatory clarity spurs institutional buying, Bitcoin could rebound, making the bearish outlook conditional rather than permanent.