Bitcoin Lags Stocks and Gold — Weakest Correlation Since FTX Shock
Bitcoin has diverged sharply from equities and gold since late August, delivering its weakest correlation with stocks since the 2022 FTX collapse. Over the past six months gold rose ~51% and the S&P 500 gained ~7% while BTC fell about 43%. Data-provider Santiment notes this level of deviation from historical BTC–equity correlation is uncommon and may not persist. If macro conditions change — for example, three interest-rate cuts in H2 2025 — BTC and altcoins could recover towards their historical alignment with equities. Short-term market structure shows bearish pressure: funding rates in BTC futures are largely negative across $62k–$68k, short-term holders have been selling at a loss for nearly 30 days, and CryptoQuant warns that recent rallies may be exit liquidity rather than trend reversals. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed above $66,000 before settling near $65,000. Traders should watch funding rates, short-term holder profitability, and macro policy signals for clues on whether BTC will re-couple with equities or continue to underperform.
Bearish
The article highlights a significant divergence in which Bitcoin has underperformed while equities and gold advanced — a rare decoupling last seen during the 2022 FTX crisis. Short-term market signals are bearish: persistent negative futures funding rates across the $62k–$68k range imply dominant short positions or long reluctance; short-term holders have sold at a loss for ~30 days, and large sell spikes have been absorbed without sparking sustainable rallies. Historical precedent (2022) shows crypto can fall much harder than stocks during stress events. Until short-term holder profitability turns positive and funding rates normalize, rallies are likely to act as exit liquidity. That suggests continued downside risk or at best range-bound action in the short term. However, if macro conditions shift materially (e.g., multiple rate cuts in H2 2025) capital flows could rotate back into risk assets and restore BTC’s historical correlation with equities, producing a potential bullish recovery in the medium term. Traders should monitor funding rates, on-chain selling by short-term holders, and central-bank guidance for rate cuts as primary catalysts.