Bitcoin Weak Hands Capitulate as Early Recovery Signs Emerge
Bitcoin, after sliding 3.7% in a month and falling from $124,000 to $107,270, showed early recovery signs as short-term holders (STH) capitulated. The STH MVRV ratio dropped below 1 after 132 days, with unrealized losses hitting 0.955 and realized losses surging to 2,600 BTC. This capitulation often precedes rebounds by flushing weak hands. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTH) held firm: LTH sell-side risk fell to 0.0017, underscoring low selling pressure. On-chain seller exhaustion bottomed out in August and is rising, suggesting easing downward momentum. Trading near $109,540 (+0.56% 24 h), Bitcoin could stabilize and target $112,000 if demand returns; persistent STH selling may push support toward $105,000. Traders should watch on-chain metrics for confirmation.
Bullish
The capitulation of short-term holders, evidenced by the STH MVRV ratio falling below 1 and a surge to 2,600 BTC in realized losses, typically marks market bottoms and precedes rebounds. Combined with strong long-term holder conviction—LTH sell-side risk at 0.0017—and a rising seller exhaustion metric, downward pressure is easing. Historically, similar on-chain patterns (e.g., February dips) led to sustained Bitcoin rallies. In the short term, BTC may test resistance near $112,000, while long-term accumulation by strong hands could underpin a broader uptrend. Traders should monitor on-chain indicators for confirmation of a sustained recovery.