Bitcoin Faces Weakest October as US Demand Softens
Bitcoin is on track for its weakest October since 2020, trading near $80,800 compared with September’s close of about $83,567. That leaves Bitcoin down roughly 4% this month, despite October’s historical average gain of 18.1% since 2020.
CryptoQuant reported that the Coinbase Premium stayed negative throughout October, averaging -0.093 and reaching about -0.146, its lowest level since late June. The readings suggest weaker US spot demand relative to offshore exchanges. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index also fell from 90 to 60, although six of its ten indicators remained bullish; a score below 50 would signal a clearer shift in conditions.
Short-term holders have less unrealized profit to cushion losses: Bitcoin was 8.1% above the realized price for coins held one to three months on October 26, down from 33.4% on September 22. Traders are watching the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and comments for clues about rates and risk appetite. A softer tone could support a rebound, while a more cautious outlook may add pressure, but neither guarantees Bitcoin’s next move.
Bearish
The near-term signals lean bearish for Bitcoin: BTC is trading below September’s close, the Coinbase Premium remained negative throughout October, and CryptoQuant’s Bull Score fell sharply from 90 to 60. The shrinking profit cushion among short-term holders could also make some traders quicker to sell if prices fall further. Together, these indicators point to softer spot buying and greater sensitivity to negative news, rather than confirming that a bear market has begun.
Similar combinations of weak exchange demand, deteriorating momentum measures and reduced holder profits have often coincided with choppy trading and downside pressure. However, the article does not establish that these indicators alone will determine prices. The Federal Reserve decision is a key near-term catalyst: a more supportive policy tone could improve risk appetite and prompt a rebound, while a cautious outlook could reinforce selling. Traders may therefore see elevated volatility around the announcement.
Over the longer term, the outlook depends on whether US spot demand recovers and the broader set of market indicators stabilizes. Six of CryptoQuant’s ten gauges remained bullish, and the Bull Score is still above the stated 50 threshold for a clearer regime shift. That leaves room for a recovery, but until demand improves, rallies may face selling pressure and market stability could remain fragile.