Bitcoin nears critical weekly EMA; $60,000 support at risk
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a corrective phase as bearish momentum intensifies across weekly timeframes. The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) is weakening—signaling loss of bullish trend support—and price is testing the 200-week EMA, a major long-term structural defense. BTC fell about 9–11% during the selloff to near $66,000, its lowest since October 2024. Key technical zone: $60,000–$54,000 (confluence of 0.618 Fibonacci and daily support). A weekly close below the 200-week EMA would heighten the likelihood of a capitulation-style drop toward $60,000 then $57,000–$54,000. Crypto-exposed equities and safe-haven metals also retraced amid a broad risk-off move. Traders should watch weekly closes, volume, and EMA behavior for confirmation; downside risk and volatility remain elevated until bullish structure is reclaimed.
Bearish
Price structure on weekly charts has shifted from bullish to corrective: weakening 21-week EMA, lower highs, and expanding downside candles indicate aggressive selling. The 200-week EMA is being tested — historically a critical long-term support — and a weekly close below it would likely trigger forced selling and a capitulation move toward the $60,000–$54,000 confluence zone (including the 0.618 Fibonacci level). Similar past events (sharp selloffs that breached major weekly EMAs) produced rapid declines followed by volatile basing periods before recovery. Near-term impact: elevated downside risk, higher intraday/weekly volatility, and increased probability of stop-loss cascades in leveraged positions. Long-term impact: if 200-week EMA holds, it can form a buying opportunity and local bottom; if it fails, that would delay trend recovery and reset longer-term levels lower. Traders should monitor weekly closes, volume spikes, EMA behavior, and price action around $60k and $54k to time entries or risk reduction.