Bitcoin’s Weekly EMA Bearish Crossover, ETF Outflows and FOMC Risks Raise Red Flags
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $89,200 as a bearish technical signal reappears: the 21-week EMA has crossed below the 50-week EMA, a pattern that preceded major drawdowns in prior cycles (2018, 2022). Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $147 million in net outflows on Jan 27, suggesting profit-taking or reduced demand among large holders. Analysts mark $70,000–$75,000 as the next key support range; veteran trader Peter Brandt warned of a potential drop to $58,000–$62,000 if structure breaks. Macro risks intensify near January 28’s US crude inventory report and the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision — BTC has historically shown weakness around FOMC meetings, with notable post-meeting declines in 2025. On-chain metric Supply in Loss (%) is rising again, a directional early warning seen before past prolonged bearish phases. Traders should watch the weekly EMA crossover, ETF flows, FOMC outcomes, and supply-in-loss trends for signals on momentum and possible deeper corrections.
Bearish
The combination of a weekly 21-EMA crossing below the 50-EMA, notable spot-ETF net outflows, rising supply-in-loss, and imminent macro risks (FOMC and oil data) points to increased downside risk. Historically, the same weekly EMA crossover preceded prolonged corrections in 2018 and 2022. ETF outflows often coincide with reduced buying pressure from institutional or retail investors and can accelerate selling. The supply-in-loss metric rising indicates more holders moving underwater, which increases the likelihood of capitulation if price falls further. Near-term, FOMC-driven volatility could trigger further downside or test the $70k–$75k support; a break there could validate deeper targets cited by analysts (~$58k–$62k). Longer term, if macro conditions ease and ETF demand resumes, BTC could stabilize and recover; however, these technical and on-chain warning signs make the immediate outlook cautious and favor risk-managed or defensive trading strategies (tight stops, reduced leverage, watch liquidity).