Bitcoin Weekly RSI Drops to Multi-Year Low — Traders Weigh Rebound vs. Deeper Drawdown
Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to about 35 — the weakest weekly reading since early 2023 — after roughly a 36% drawdown from the all-time high to lows near $80.5K–$87K. Historical parallels show such low weekly RSI readings have sometimes preceded major rallies (notably when BTC traded near $15.5K–$17K), but they have also persisted through extended bear markets (2018, 2022). On-chain metrics add nuance: CryptoQuant’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has moved from roughly -0.6 toward -0.32, indicating structural undervaluation and a move toward equilibrium that in past cycles preceded large rallies. Analysts are split — some view the confluence of extreme weekly RSI and depressed NVT as a buy-the-dip opportunity and potential relief bounce; others warn the RSI can stay oversold during prolonged corrections, so a capitulation bottom is not guaranteed. Trader guidance: wait for price-action confirmation (stabilization or bullish RSI divergence), monitor higher-timeframe support, consider dollar-cost averaging for long-term exposure, and apply strict risk management. This is not investment advice.
Neutral
The news delivers mixed technical and on-chain signals that do not clearly imply an immediate directional bias for BTC price. Short-term: a weekly RSI at ~35 signals extreme oversold momentum that often precedes relief bounces, so traders may see increased short-term buying interest and volatility around support levels. The depressed NVT Golden Cross (moving toward -0.32) supports a narrative of structural undervaluation, which historically has preceded larger rallies and could attract accumulation from longer-term investors. However, historical precedents (2018, 2022) show oversold weekly RSI can persist through extended bear trends, meaning the market could still make lower lows before a sustainable reversal. Consequently, the most prudent classification is neutral — conditions favor potential relief rallies and accumulation opportunities but also leave meaningful downside risk if price fails to stabilize. Traders should therefore wait for confirmation from price action (stabilization, bullish RSI divergence, or reclaiming key weekly support/resistance), use position sizing and dollar-cost averaging for longer-horizon exposure, and apply stop-losses to manage tail risk.