Bitcoin weekly RSI still below 41.5—bottom not confirmed
Traders watching for a Bitcoin bottom got a caution signal: Bitcoin’s weekly RSI (14-week) is still below the key 41.5 threshold tracked by Material Indicators. The rebound in price toward ~$64,000 after dropping under $60,000 has not yet turned into a confirmed bull-market regime.
Historically, when Bitcoin’s weekly RSI stays above 41.5, it has aligned with bullish macro trends. When the RSI drops below 41.5, bearish pressure tends to dominate, as seen in late 2018 and again in May–December 2022 and recent months.
Material Indicators analyst Keith Alan says bulls still carry the “burden of proof” until the weekly RSI clears 41.5. The next downside level to monitor is 31.89 (the prior weekly reading). If the weekly RSI falls under 31.89, it would suggest further price losses are likely.
At the time of writing, the weekly RSI is around 34.00, while Bitcoin trades near $63,000.
Neutral
The article’s core message is technical rather than fundamentally decisive. Bitcoin’s bounce can be real, but the confirmation trigger—Bitcoin’s weekly RSI reclaiming 41.5—has not happened yet. This keeps the market in a “wait-for-regime-change” state.
On the upside, a weekly RSI close back above 41.5 would historically shift the odds toward a bullish macro regime, improving the confidence of trend-following traders and supporting dip-buying. On the downside, the cited risk level at 31.89 matters because a further breakdown of the weekly RSI would signal that the current move may be only a relief rally within a broader downtrend.
In short, similar past cycles show that RSI regime separation often precedes sustained trend behavior. Until Bitcoin’s weekly momentum indicator clears that line, traders may tighten risk, reduce leverage, and prefer confirmation trades over early bottom-calls—so the near-term impact is more neutral than outright bullish or bearish.