VanEck: Bitcoin Whales Hold Firm; Mid-Cycle Selling Rises
VanEck’s Mid-November Bitcoin ChainCheck report reveals a surge in Bitcoin selling pressure driven by mid-cycle holders, while Bitcoin whales maintain their positions. Over the past month, BTC prices fell more than 13% as coins last moved between three and five years ago accounted for over 30% of supply rotation. In contrast, wallets active for over five years expanded holdings by 278,000 BTC, underscoring that long-term whales stayed firm amid volatility. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) also contributed to supply outflows, shedding 49,000 BTC since October 10. Analysis of wallet sizes shows a rotation from large whales (1,000–100,000 BTC) to smaller investors (100–1,000 BTC), who increased holdings by 23%. Futures markets reflect cautious sentiment: perpetual funding rates dropped to late-2023 lows and open interest fell 30% in USD terms since early October. These indicators suggest that while Bitcoin whales remain patient, mid-cycle holders and ETP outflows are driving the current sell-off.
Bearish
Short-term, increased sell-off from mid-cycle holders and significant ETP outflows are applying downward pressure, mirroring past cycles where coins moved in quieter phases triggered sharp dips. Futures funding rates below spot indicate reduced long leverage and cautious traders, reinforcing bearish momentum. However, long-term Bitcoin whales holding firm—expanding their balances—suggest a stabilizing support level akin to previous blows in 2022 when durable holders prevented deeper crashes. This dynamic implies short-term bearish sentiment may give way to consolidation as strong hands absorb excess supply, leading to a neutral-to-bearish outlook overall.