1,,,, BTC) have seen their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) fall to about ,.2, a level historically aligned with late bear-market phases. Pseudonymous analyst Darkfost highlighted the decline on X, noting that these whales are approaching zero unrealized profits and could move into realized losses if the correction continues. Short-term or "new" whales have already realized over $3 billion in losses between Feb 3–7, suggesting active capitulation by this cohort. Sustained selling from whales could add fresh downward pressure on BTC. At the time of reporting BTC traded near $68,71, (up ~5% 24h, down ~3% over the week). Key metrics: NUPL ≈ ,.2 for >1,,,, BTC addresses; >$3B realized losses by new short-term whales (Feb 3–7). Implication for traders: increased risk of accelerated downside if large holders realize more losses; monitor whale NUPL, on-chain outflows, and realized-loss spikes for potential selling cascades.">

Bitcoin Whales Near Zero Unrealized Profits — Could Trigger More Selling

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On-chain data show Bitcoin "big whales" (addresses holding >1,000 BTC) have seen their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) fall to about 0.2, a level historically aligned with late bear-market phases. Pseudonymous analyst Darkfost highlighted the decline on X, noting that these whales are approaching zero unrealized profits and could move into realized losses if the correction continues. Short-term or "new" whales have already realized over $3 billion in losses between Feb 3–7, suggesting active capitulation by this cohort. Sustained selling from whales could add fresh downward pressure on BTC. At the time of reporting BTC traded near $68,710 (up ~5% 24h, down ~3% over the week). Key metrics: NUPL ≈ 0.2 for >1,000 BTC addresses; >$3B realized losses by new short-term whales (Feb 3–7). Implication for traders: increased risk of accelerated downside if large holders realize more losses; monitor whale NUPL, on-chain outflows, and realized-loss spikes for potential selling cascades.
Bearish
The article describes large Bitcoin holders (>1,000 BTC) moving toward zero unrealized profits (NUPL ≈ 0.2) and reports over $3 billion in realized losses by short-term whales in early February. Historically, NUPL levels near this range have coincided with advanced bear-market phases when large holders transition from paper gains to losses and often sell into weakness. Realized-loss spikes from whales signal active liquidation rather than mere mark-to-market moves; when concentrated in large addresses, this can increase supply on exchanges or OTC desks and trigger further price drops. Short-term impact: elevated downside risk and higher volatility as traders react to potential whale selling — watch on-chain outflows, exchange inflows, and realized-loss metrics for confirmation. Long-term impact: if capitulation completes and major holders stabilize at realized losses, the market may clear excess supply and set a base, but the path down can be steep. Similar past events include 2018–2019 and 2022 bear phases, where sustained whale selling and falling NUPL preceded extended drawdowns. Traders should size positions conservatively, use stop management, and consider hedges until on-chain indicators show re-accumulation or NUPL recovery.