Bitfinex: ETF Outflows and Whale Selling Weigh on Bitcoin; $53k Seen as Key Support
Bitfinex Alpha reports that Bitcoin remains in a higher-timeframe downtrend driven by weak spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows and continued whale selling. Although BTC rebounded ~20% from the Feb. 5 low, the bottom is not confirmed. U.S. spot BTC ETFs have recorded cumulative net outflows of about $2.6 billion year-to-date, adding institutional selling pressure. On-chain data show roughly 64% of exchange inflows now come from large holders — the highest share since October 2015. Options traders are pricing a premium for downside protection amid tariff policy and macro uncertainty. Bitfinex highlights a realised price of $53,000 as an important medium-term support level. The report cautions markets remain cautious and this update is for market information only, not investment advice.
Bearish
The report signals sustained selling pressure from institutional ETF outflows and large holders routing funds into exchanges — classic supply-side factors that weigh on price. Net ETF outflows of $2.6B year-to-date and the fact that 64% of exchange inflows are from whales increase the probability of further downward moves or volatility. Options markets pricing downside premium indicates traders expect risk to the downside in the near term. The identified realised price at $53k provides a technical medium-term support; a clear break below it could trigger heavier selling and momentum-driven declines. Historically, large coordinated selling by whales and negative ETF flows have correlated with multi-week drawdowns in BTC (e.g., 2018 and interim corrections in 2021–2022). Short-term traders should expect elevated volatility and prefer defensive risk management (tight stops, reduced leverage). Longer-term investors may view $53k as a critical level to monitor for accumulation but should wait for confirmation of reduced outflows and decreased exchange inflows from whales before assuming a trend reversal.