BitMine’s $15B ETH Treasury Hits $3.5B Paper Loss as Whales Continue Buying
BitMine Immersion, the largest Ethereum treasury firm, holds 3.7 million ETH after investing $14.6 billion but is carrying an unrealized loss of about $3.5 billion following a 40% Q4 price drop that left ETH trading around $2.6K–$2.9K. BitMine chair Tom Lee remains bullish, continuing to scale holdings while some smaller treasuries such as SharpLink and ETHZilla have liquidated ETH positions and exited their strategies. Treasury firms now control roughly 5.6% of circulating ETH supply, rivaling institutional ETF demand. Meanwhile, whale accumulation accelerated through 2025: addresses holding 10K–100K ETH amassed over 21 million ETH, and Liquid Capital reported buying $1.72 billion of ETH in November with plans for another $1 billion. Valuation models (7 of 10 metrics) place ETH fair value near $4.2K, implying roughly 45% upside from current levels, though past performance is no guarantee. Traders should note heightened concentration in ETH treasuries, continued whale accumulation, and divergent behavior among treasury firms when assessing volatility and liquidity risks.
Neutral
The news mixes bearish and bullish elements, yielding a neutral market impact. Bearish factors: BitMine’s $3.5B unrealized loss and the forced liquidations by smaller treasury firms (SharpLink, ETHZilla) increase short-term selling pressure and raise liquidity risk—especially because treasury firms now control ~5.6% of circulating ETH. Concentrated large holdings can amplify volatility if more treasuries sell. Bullish factors: sustained whale accumulation (10K–100K ETH addresses holding >21M ETH), Liquid Capital’s large buys, and valuation models indicating a ~45% fair-value upside to ~$4.2K support medium-to-long-term demand. Historically, similar treasury distress (forced sales) has amplified drawdowns in the short term, but strong institutional accumulation often supports recoveries later. For traders: expect elevated volatility and possible downward pressure in the short term if more treasuries liquidate, but accumulation by whales and positive valuation signals point to potential mid/long-term upside. Manage risk by monitoring on-chain treasury flows, large wallet activity, and concentrated balance changes; use tighter stops and size positions to account for higher liquidity risk.