Bittensor (TAO) risks 18% drop to $144 as selling pressure mounts
Bittensor (TAO) extended a four-day bearish run, falling 5.25% in 24 hours to trade around $174.2 amid a 15% jump in 24-hour volume to $117.5 million. Technical analysis points to a failed reclaim of the key $207 level (broken on Jan 31, 2026) and a reversal near the 0.618 Fibonacci level. If TAO remains below $207, it could decline roughly 18% toward a $144 liquidity/support level. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 33.62 signals strong trend momentum. Derivatives data show concentrated open interest and leverage around $170.8 (downside) and $181.3 (upside), with $2.65M in short leveraged positions versus $1.89M in longs—indicating a bearish bias. Conversely, CryptoQuant’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD shows persistent buyer absorption over the past week, suggesting some accumulation between $170–$195. Key takeaways for traders: heightened volume on declines confirms active participation and strengthens the near-term bearish case; watch $207 as the critical breakout/reversal level and $144 as a likely target if selling continues; monitor open interest and CVD for shifts between leveraged short squeeze risk and genuine buyer absorption.
Bearish
The article presents multiple indicators pointing to near-term bearish pressure on TAO: price has failed to reclaim the $207 pivot, volume rose while price fell (confirmation of selling), ADX above 25 indicates strong directional momentum, and derivatives positioning shows larger short leverage than longs. These factors combine to make an ~18% decline to $144 a plausible short-term scenario. However, mixed on-chain signals (CryptoQuant CVD showing buyer absorption) introduce a risk that aggressive buyers could stabilize price or trigger a short squeeze if leveraged shorts are forced to cover. Historically, similar setups—price failing key reclaim levels with rising volume and dominant short open interest—have led to continued downtrends until a clear reclamation or capitulation occurs. For traders: short-term strategy favors risk-managed short positions or waiting for a confirmed reclaim above $207 to flip bias; watch open interest, funding rates, and CVD for signs of short-covering or renewed accumulation that could abruptly reduce downside risk. Long-term impact depends on broader market conditions and whether buyers continue to accumulate; persistent accumulation could limit losses and set the stage for a rebound once macro sentiment or on-chain fundamentals improve.