Bitwise Raises Bitcoin’s 2036 Price Target to $1.6 Million
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says the firm has raised its 10-year Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, implying a projected annualised return of 34.3%. The forecast uses the same model as last year, with updated market data.
Bitwise attributes the increase to a larger potential market. Its estimate for the value-storage market over the next decade rose from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, while the projected institutional investment market grew from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. The firm kept its assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of these markets unchanged.
Hougan points to continued activity by wealth-management firms, central banks and sovereign wealth funds, as well as a narrowing in Bitcoin’s historical volatility. He also notes that Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market has grown from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5% today.
The outlook faces risks: gold has attracted more value-storage inflows, Bitcoin remains prone to sharp drawdowns, and spot ETF inflows have slowed. Bitwise argues that institutions continued buying during the downturn and that the latest reported decline was milder than in some earlier bear markets. The $1.6 million figure is a long-term forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Bullish
The report is bullish for Bitcoin’s long-term narrative because Bitwise raised its 10-year price target and expects a 34.3% annualised return. Its case rests on expanding addressable markets, wider institutional participation and Bitcoin’s growing share of the store-of-value market. Those themes may reinforce long-term investor confidence and support accumulation if institutional adoption continues.
The immediate trading impact is likely to be limited. This is a forecast from an asset manager, not a change in regulation, network fundamentals or ETF flows, and traders may already have priced in some institutional-adoption expectations. The prediction also depends on assumptions about future market size and Bitcoin’s ability to capture market share. Gold’s stronger inflows, slower ETF demand and Bitcoin’s history of sharp drawdowns remain material risks.
Past Bitcoin cycles show that optimistic long-range targets can support sentiment but do not prevent near-term volatility; price action, liquidity and actual fund flows generally matter more to short-term trading. Traders may treat the report as a supportive long-term signal while looking for confirmation in ETF flows and broader risk appetite. It does not, by itself, establish a near-term price trend or reduce market-stability risks.